NOODLING AROUND

It Comes as No Surprise:

The Wall Street Journal posted a delightful article (for me), about Los Angeleans and their belief in the world as their own entitlement oyster. It seems that Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) has literally begun to pull the plug on free parking for electric cars. Up until very recently you could park your Leafy-tesla-volter in one of their charging stations for FREE for 30 days. The whole article is simply about very rich people (you have to be to afford one of these cars) who feel entitled to all the joys of free parking, free access to HOV lanes, and subsidies from the government. What the problem is now is that there is not enough free parking, well welcome to the real world. CLICK HERE

  

Ada Louise Huxtable (March 21, 1921 – January 7, 2013)

When I was at Michigan State University so many decades ago, we were introduced to Ms. Huxtable’s critical writings on the great architects of the time, Mies van der Rohe, Frank Lloyd Wright, Minoru Yamasaki, and many others. She, along with other critics of the time, helped to form our opinions and beliefs about architecture and urban environments. Her columns in the New York Times left little in the new architecture unchallenged. For some architects she was like their mother looking over their shoulder, always demanding the best and pointing out the insufficient. She and her pen will be missed. CLICK HERE  

Can Housing Get Us Out of Our Mess?

Housing has never been this affordable. Prices have dropped significantly over the past four years (for those not paying attention), mortgage rates are at historic lows, and there is increasing pressure from rising rents. The result is that ownership of single family housing is again on the rise. Contrary to all the doom-and-gloomers who predicted the end of ownership housing as we knew it, it’s making its way back. Good article here in the Washington Post from earlier this week. CLICK HERE

The Premature Declaration of Death

Way back in the early 1990s I was told that master planned communities (MPCs) were dead, too expensive, environmental burdens were too much, infrastructure costs pushed profitability over the edge of reason – especially in California. Then they arose from the grave, then in 2007 fell back into the hole and dirt was being thrown on the body, especially in California. In this post by RCLCO Advisory, they list the top-selling master planned communities across the United States. While the total numbers are less than 2% of the total for new homes built last year, it still shows a trend. This trend is that there are bright spots across the country for MPCs. Of the top 20 communities, 9 are in Texas (Why is it always Texas?), 5 in Florida (the #1 is the huge The Villages senior community), 3 in Nevada (yes, the worst housing market in the U.S.) and the remaining are in Washington D.C., Colorado, and one in California, the huge Irvine Ranch now in its 53rd year (so hardly a new MPC). So nothing in California, totally understandable and predictable – and will be for a long time. CLICK HERE  

Stay Tuned . . . . . .

The Blogger’s Dilemma

 It’s every blogger’s dilemma, all week you’re full of ideas and, for that matter, yourself, throwing off brilliant comments about this and that. Smart, crisp, erudite, pithy remarks about the state of the dark urban world and how you are the only one with a flashlight. Then comes blog day and you haven’t a clue what to write. I don’t want this to come off as an early Noodling but let’s see what I can scrape up. Most are softballs.

California High Speed Rail: NO even to stage one. But this does remind me of the story of when Teddy Roosevelt was trying to get an increase to his defense budget when he sent the fleet to the Philippines. There was only enough fuel for a one way-trip. He demanded and then got the appropriation and a little more so the fleet could return. Is this what’s happening with HSR in California, build the core infrastructure (Central Valley maintenance, and switching and a few miles of track) in the heart of California, hundreds of miles from a large urban area and then demand the rest of the money to connect the system? I’m just asking.

The Electric Car: Reality is sinking in. “Hon, time to replace the battery in the Volt, do we have enough left on the equity line?”  Replacement costs for batteries will kill the used car side of the market. Nothing is free, just ask all the people sucking up electricity at Starbucks. I’m waiting for recharge stations at Starbucks drive-through’s. And again, why is it that a government entity (state, county, city) be the ones required to install recharge stations? I would only support them if, like parking meters, they charge an-arm-a-leg for the service and make serious $$$ for the municipality. And I ask you, if you have a dealer’s lot full of Nissan Leafs, is it proper to call them Leafs or Leaves.

The rise in urban bikers: If there is one lobby that wants something for nothing it’s bicyclists. There more bike coalitions (Why that term? Biker gang has more panache.) demanding this and that than any other urban group, Demands such as new bike lanes, bike storage, parking, etc. all at the expense of other transit needs. I call for a license fee for ALL bikes in the state of California. Say $20 to start. This would be used for trails, bike lanes, and storage. It would also create a state database that would help track down your $4,000 Schwinn when it’s stolen. We license dogs, hairdressers, and landscape architects why not a fee for bikes, and that includes that cute pink one in the garage for your daughter. I had to buy a license for my bike back in the fifties in Illinois - this ain't a new concept. There will be no escape from this odious fee (I’ll be the first to call it that). Then maybe they’ll start to act more civilized as they scare the hell out of car drivers on popular bike circuits as they course through town in those hideous outfits – again the term Biker Gangs comes to mind.

Before

After? Brown and Olive my two favorite colors!

Urban Art: Why is it that most urban art is as interesting as mud on a fence? My little town (Walnut Creek, Ca.) went through a long process of trying to find an artist or artists to redo some fountains on our Main Street. These were built years ago and did need a face lift. The results are without a doubt just lame. To me urban art is about raising ideas, honoring an ideal, or just plain fun. It should stir the soul or cause you to pause, maybe to laugh, or even think. I suggest it’s not there to make you wonder WHY? For the Main Street of a town I go for fun and interesting. The before was old and tired, the new is just, well, just lame. And it certainly, unlike the old, doesn’t welcome you to sit. Another missed opportunity, and what were they thinking?

Omaha Beach, Normandy, France

 And lastly, Wednesday this week was the 6^th of June, the 70th anniversary of D-Day. Day’s like December 7^th and September 9^th will remain in our history as long as there are memories. This invasion of France on the beaches of Normandy changed the war and changed the course of history. To stand in the cemetery at Omaha Beach is transformative, to look over that huge width of beach from the bluffs, you wonder how anyone survived. Take a moment and thank those who gave up everything for us. For them failure was not an option.

Stay Tuned . . . .

Tech Genius vs. The Market – They Must Think We’re Stupid!

The New Tesla Roadster

When politician’s try to create consumer business models, all I can do is cover my eyes with one hand and put the other over my wallet. Example: In Novemeber, 2008 the esteemed ‘Other’ senator from New York, Sen. Charles Schumer said, ““A business model based on gas — a gas-guzzling past — is unacceptable. We need a business model based on cars of the future, and we already know what that future is: the plug-in hybrid electric car.”

Done and Done.

Somehow the idea of an electric car business model that requires the entrepreneurial company to create whole new technologies is foolish. Do GM and Ford continue to find new oil deposits to support their automobile industry? Of course not. Complicated systems require the collaboration of many industries to reach their goal. Each piece of the collaboration must be profitable and (I hate the word) sustainable. The end result is an industry such as computers, television, defense, and even the automobile. Somehow this has been skewed in the current electric car industry. 

Just think, if you were required to prepurchase all the gas your car would need for the next five years, how do you think the auto industry would react (kind of like personally hedging gas futures, I like it!)? Not well. For the average driver this would add at least $15,000 to the price, I can hear the screaming. But in effect that’s what the electric car industry wants. Prepurchase, by buying the battery, your fuel for the next five years (and you get to top off the tank with an extension cord in the privacy of your home). For the top of the current electric car market, the Tesla, this prepurchase amount is 1/3 of the cost of the car.

Sidebar:

Tesla is fighting an electrical storm over the marketplace finding out that when the $40,000 battery fully loses its charge it is forever, and entirely, dead. Over 400 pounds of lithium and other stuff dead, I wonder about the landfill issues. The only solution is to purchase a new battery (and the warranty does not cover this). How’s that for not recharging – pretty severe penalty. In addition the car cannot be towed – the motors are locked. I again say: You cannot even recharge the dead battery – its caputsky! This unfortunate result is defined in technical terms as “Bricking.” As in, the car is as dead as a brick. Now, sure, if you leave the trickle charger on while you finally take that around the world cruise, this won’t happen. But do you want your spouse always asking, “Hon, did you trickle?” I ask you. (GO HERE for the article)

There is also the small, yet not insignificant issue, of the eventual replacement of the battery after so many charges (the number is all over the place but typically starts at 400), the replacement can cost more than $8,000 (This is 2,000 gallons of $4.00 gas – or, with a Ford Focus, 50,000 miles). And then there’s the fear of an accident and the 400 volt wiring getting cut, emergency response teams are now training for electrocutions.

The electric car is no different than a standard auto with a different power source. That’s it. But the market place (us guys), with justification, intuitively knows that there are problems. Problems that may leave them stranded on I-5 halfway between LA and San Francisco with too short an extension cord. Even now the electric car industry produces a vehicle that acts as a second car – the “commute car.” It’s not the errand car, the drive to a hundred place with the kids car, the let’s go to grandmas car. I ask you, just check that little odometer that kicks in to tell you how far you’ve driven in one Saturday’s worth of errands – yeh, now you get it. Stuck at Costco, for five hours, recharging just wasn’t in my Saturday plans. 

And the rumor is that the president wants to increase the tax credit to $10,000 from $7,500. Bribery and governmental stupidity – they go hand in hand. My hand is still over my butt.

The market is telling Detroit and Silicon Valley (Tesla) and Fiskar Karma, no. This is not what we want, don’t you get it! How loud do we have to scream? And don’t lay some gasoline guilt trip on us either. Sure the cars are sexy, but wait . . .we aren’t the morons that the coasts think we are. We know you can build a car that gets fifty miles to the gallon and we will buy it. We know that world is a tough place, but we also need to get to Whole Foods and Costco. No matter how you advertise the Volt, it stills come across as a government subsidized, electrified and gasified, Edsel (how’s that for mixing auto companies?).

If you really want to make electric cars work in the marketplace, design them to have slide-in and slide-out battery packs that are essentially rented (like buying gas). They can be exchanged in less than three minutes, put on your credit card, and can be done anywhere (yes, there will be a ramp-up). Then the competition will be between battery makers and “renters” for your business (PG&E are you listening?). It won’t be about cars with a $40,000 fuel tank and a brick in your garage.

The Backup Power Source that Can't be Bricked!

Stay tuned . . . . .

The Electric Dream Car

I have, over the last nine months, challenged the fundamentals of the electric car on one specific issue, its viability in a world of inexpensive gasoline. And now there is one more issue to deal with, the unquestionable silliness of Washington to force feed the car (esp. the American version) down the throats of the American consumer. Patrick Michaels points out, in a Forbes article about the Chevy Volt, its debut is nothing more than a sham and if you and I were to proceed the way GM has, I suggest that we would be sharing a hall with Bernie Madoff.

And yes, gasoline is still inexpensive. Germans pay about $5.60 for a gallon (last month), but a good chunk of it above $4.00 is taxes. They seem to survive.

I have no sympathy for a product that does not meet the needs and expectations of the marketplace. Every year thousands of products, inventions, toys and all sorts of things are designed, manufactured, marketed and then offered to the public. Most fail.

The alleys of the marketing world are littered with great ideas, the Edsel, New Coke, Microsoft’s Zune, Microsoft WebTV, Apple’s Newton, the DeLoren, Sony Betamax, the USFL, Charlie Sheen, and the list goes on.

The Volt, and other such pretentious products, will have to meet the measure of the consumer, and no matter how it’s presented. If it doesn’t, it will and deserves to, fail. Pumping the marketplace with subsidies, tax credits, tax refunds, and free chargers will not prop up a disaster. Sure its price is high, $41,000 sticker (just try and find one at that price), which is $17,500 over the price of a Ford Focus-SFE(40 mpg), that will get you essentially 175,000 free miles for the difference, even with $4.00 gas. And the Volt STILL uses gasoline to push you down the highway. Maybe it should be renamed the Chevy Gas.

My problem is with the use of public funds to support, what is essentially, a United States government owned company (U.S., not the non-capitalized us). There are so many other uses to waste money on, why the rabid focus on just this?

I firmly believe there is an all-electric American car in the urban future, but it has to compete with all the other competitive transportation products, both electric and hybrid, out there and soon coming down your street. The Tesla looks interesting, the Fisker Karma is dramatic, the Nissan Leaf is tailpipeless, and soon there will be others. But even these will get the tax savings – at least for a while. Remember the hybrid’s use of HOV lanes in California, what gov gives – gov takes.

But the future is a little dusty right now. Will there be the power generation needed to help fill the batteries of these little beasties? What is the future of nuclear power? How will these personal transportation devices compete for juice with the giant sucking sound of high-speed rail in the future? I don’t know, and neither does anyone else. I’m just getting a little tired of paying for someone else’s toys.

The Urban Umbilical Cord, Part 3

Once more into the never ending wonder that is the electric car. I posted, about six weeks ago, two blogs about my take on the vehicle and how the public may receive it. I did not and will not deal with the mechanics or even the whole issue of batteries and recharging and what their real impact is, I leave this to the experts. Remember, it is nothing more than a car with a different and yet quite conventional power source; one that has been around longer than the internal combustion engine – the electric motor. (Oh by the way honey, did you plug-in the car last night?).

What I do object to is how federal and state governments are now the financiers and marketers for this form of transportation. Besides being involved with the ownership of GM, governmental agencies dangle freebies to the market in an unabashed effort to prevent their failure.

In an article in the NY Times on Thursday it was laid out simply for all to understand. These incentives include for the Nissan Leaf (due in December): a $7,500 federal tax credit, a $2,500 cash rebate from the state of Tennessee if you live there (in California you will receive a $5,000 tax credit). Also, in many states, they will install, at no cost, a home-charging unit provided by the Energy Department (some provide tax credits for this). By the way you cannot just plug this baby into your toaster outlet – it feeds on 240 volts and it will require you to rewire your garage.

These cars are not cheap, the Leaf starts at $32,780, the Chevy Volt $41,000, and for the racy Tesla Roadster – north of $100,000. These prices are well inline with the gasoline market and I am sure they will be physically worth the price. They will have leather options, cool cup holders, a jack for you iPod, and maybe even a back seat (except for the Tesla). And don’t worry about the noise issue, gas cars are so quiet now they can sneak up and bite you even with their conventional motor.

But why are our governments in the car business? The rationales include saving us from the oil companies, cleaner air, the environment, and jobs. All well and good; I certainly would rather leave the hundreds of billions in dollars we spend for fuel here at home than send it to folks who really do not like us.

The urban environment would benefit. There will still be millions of cars on city streets but they will reduce particulates and carbon dioxide by significant amounts. We will all be happier as we go to jobs in our electric mix-masters while we save the environment.

But what about apartment complexes and condominiums, how in the world will these electrical systems be integrated into this market - an important customer base? Imagine trying to rewire and accommodate these facilities. I can just see the association meetings, who is to be first and who is last. It will not be pretty and it certainly will not be cheap. I guess the gov’ment will just have to help. And what about the work place, who will cover that? (I am beginning to sound like Andy Rooney, one moment while I slap myself.)

For a product to be successful the market has to embrace it. The product must meet demand (real or perceived), be affordable to enough buyers, tease others to follow, and be profitable. The last is the most important. With all this government meddling how can the manufacturer even understand the real market and the profitability of its product? A recent affect of this governmental diddling can be seen in the credits offered to first time homebuyers. The sales dropped through the floor after these “rebates/discounts” were dropped. Homebuilding is one thing – billions in manufacturing plants and jobs is another.

The electric car is a palliative. It is a trophy to be driven, proving the driver’s worth and social concern. It is also a provocateur; it will roil the social and economic structure of the country. Is it for better or worse? This remains to be seen. But to be successful it must be profitable and that is still hidden in the fog.

Stay tuned . . . .