200 Blog Posts and Still Writing

This week’s blog is the 200^th post I’ve cobbled together since starting this whole blogging thing on June 23, 2010. It is hard to believe that almost five years have elapsed. My father, a journalist in one of his many past lives, said (paraphrasing), “See, the work of a weekly columnist is hard—it’s almost impossible finding something pithy to say every week.” I can’t disagree, some weeks I get nothing. But, here we are another week and another post. A toast—to my post.

My little burg, Walnut Creek, California is exploding. On a per acre basis there is more development and construction happening in this town than most Bay Area communities can even dream of.

The "New" Broadway Plaza

Currently there are more than a 1000 apartments under construction within and around the city center. There are also numerous projects in the final stages of planning and approval within this same envelope. Soon a massive retail and housing complex at the regional BART transit station, after years of planning, “may” get underway. In the secondary ring, one to two miles out, even more is under construction – case in point a new Safeway retail complex. So much is under construction the city is considering taking a breath and slowing down the approval process.

One of the largest retail projects in the region is the rehabilitation and remodeling of the Macerich Broadway Plaza retail center. This is a $250 million dollar facelift with up to 300,000 square feet of new retail, restaurants, and commercial uses. This will also include new multi-level parking garages and more than 800 new parking stalls. When completed this overall retail mix will be one of the Bay Area’s finest (and toniest) retail destinations.

The city itself recently approved and funded almost a half million dollars worth of downtown improvements. These will include pedestrian upgrades, weekly food and social events, parklets (the new urban fad), and signage and supporting marketing banners.

Every city's, no matter how large or small, greatest concern should be its brand. We all know what happens when this is neglected and falls apart, look at the Detroit brand and the Oakland brand. In fact, look at the whole “rust belt.” It take years, if ever, to recover from a failed urban brand. It is critical that the politicals within a community support in every way they can the developers who are building the housing, the retail, and the commercial uses. Their job is to keep the public side looking good and provide a safe welcoming environment. It takes very few miscues in these days of instant communication to destroy years of hard work.

Here is to looking at 200 more blog posts. There is still much to write about considering the strange world of electric cars, the California train to nowhere, silly urban planning, and the always interesting housing market.

Stay Tuned . . . . . . . .

The Re-Malling of America

A couple of very interesting developments over the last few weeks may significantly shake up the retail mall industry in the United States. The first of these is the hostile bid by Simons Property Group of Indianapolis, Indiana to take over The Macerich Company of Santa Monica, California. Between them they own and operate over 425 malls and retail centers in the United States and foreign countries. (Macerich – 95 properties and Simons – 325+ properties, source Wikipedia). I would venture to guess that 90% of Americans are less than one hour away from one of their respective centers. The second and even more fascinating is that the Edmonton, Alberta based Triple Five Group that owns the Edmonton Mall and the Mall of America is proposing a 4 billion dollar super, humongous, enormous, colossal entertainment and retail “mall” near Miami.

I have been directly involved in one form or another in the mall design business since the days of Alfred Taubman in the 1970s. Then some of the most exciting changes to the retail industry were underway. And many of these changes wrought terrible things on towns, peripheral suburban communities, and even downtown traditional retail centers. This is not the place to get into the history of malls in America (and elsewhere), but it is the place to look at how the forces of the marketplace consumer seem to be one step ahead of the retailers and mall owners. We went from small town America, to mid-sized suburban shopping centers, to enclosed weatherproof malls and super-malls, to massive retail centers with a mix of enclosed and open pedestrian areas, to remodeling the traditional downtown, to massive failures due to high debt by some of the largest mall owners (example: General Growth Properties), and now to the restructuring of both the mall concept itself and the companies themselves.

The biggest change seems to be in the venues themselves. Most enclosed malls were isolated at their start, primarily due to location (freeways) and cheap land costs. These were the 70s and 80s, now these malls are surrounded by residential development as well as ancillary retail and office complexes. Some have even sparked “new towns” around them. These malls are redeveloping to now include housing and office uses.

Some are beginning to emulate the entertainment aspects of some of the larger malls. While questionable, if there are enough customers many things are possible.

Why would Simons want Macerich, I have my own ideas? Simons has been very aggressive in trying to increase its square footage. Five years ago during General Growth’s serious financial problems, Simons tried unsuccessfully to take over the company, eventually they walked away. Simon has properties in Europe and Canada and have aggressively expanded into the premium outlet market. Macerich, while having some outstanding properties (Santa Monica and Walnut Creek, California), is also a developer/owner of mid-sized sub-regional centers across the United States. These properties would complement Simon’s collection. Whether Macerich can fight off Simon as well as General Growth did remains to be seen. The concern is that the customer will suffer if these acquisitions go forward is of little concern. The customer is, and has, shown itself to be fickle and will go where there is the best value, venue, and variety to shop. Failure to provide this is not an option. My guess, it is the long-term leases of many of the high-end retailers located within the Macerich centers (Nordstrom, Niemen Marcus, etc.). GO HERE  

But, Triple Five’s direction is totally different. GO HERE  To used an over-worn phrase, the are trying to Disneyfy the retail experience. Their new Miami complex will include a ski slope, a water park, a sea-lion show (not in favor of these myself), miniature golf, bowling, as well as everything from the usual restaurants, hotels, and condominiums. There is even a rumor there will be retail stores and shops. Wow and double wow, the fun and games of the retail giants of Minnesota and Edmonton Central Plains of North America are coming to South Beach. Many of these enticements have been tried before, especially during the late seventies with circus type retail malls and themed venues (skating, park-like spaces, and roller coasters). Most failed or were junked.

I have also found that these centers can never create a new market. They can only steal customers from other markets; this is what caused many of the suburban problems in the 1980s when the enclosed mall did so much damage to the traditional downtowns of smaller communities. These things are very expensive, I will wait to see if they can find the funding.

And lastly the big can get bigger. It was announced that the “new” General Growth (after its literal resurrection for the dead three years ago), is expanding its flagship mall in Honolulu.  GO HERE  Its Ala Moana Center (the world’s largest open-air mall) is expanding by another 660,000 square feet. They also sold a significant interest in the mall to an Australian retirement fund, AustralianSuper. While Ala Moana is not performing to industry standards, GGP is obviously seeing a different future than what many analysts’ see. The world is flooded with money at the moment trying to find a home; many are betting that the American REIT industry is one of the best places to be. I wish them luck.

Stay Tuned . . . . . . . .

The Blogger’s Dilemma

 It’s every blogger’s dilemma, all week you’re full of ideas and, for that matter, yourself, throwing off brilliant comments about this and that. Smart, crisp, erudite, pithy remarks about the state of the dark urban world and how you are the only one with a flashlight. Then comes blog day and you haven’t a clue what to write. I don’t want this to come off as an early Noodling but let’s see what I can scrape up. Most are softballs.

California High Speed Rail: NO even to stage one. But this does remind me of the story of when Teddy Roosevelt was trying to get an increase to his defense budget when he sent the fleet to the Philippines. There was only enough fuel for a one way-trip. He demanded and then got the appropriation and a little more so the fleet could return. Is this what’s happening with HSR in California, build the core infrastructure (Central Valley maintenance, and switching and a few miles of track) in the heart of California, hundreds of miles from a large urban area and then demand the rest of the money to connect the system? I’m just asking.

The Electric Car: Reality is sinking in. “Hon, time to replace the battery in the Volt, do we have enough left on the equity line?”  Replacement costs for batteries will kill the used car side of the market. Nothing is free, just ask all the people sucking up electricity at Starbucks. I’m waiting for recharge stations at Starbucks drive-through’s. And again, why is it that a government entity (state, county, city) be the ones required to install recharge stations? I would only support them if, like parking meters, they charge an-arm-a-leg for the service and make serious $$$ for the municipality. And I ask you, if you have a dealer’s lot full of Nissan Leafs, is it proper to call them Leafs or Leaves.

The rise in urban bikers: If there is one lobby that wants something for nothing it’s bicyclists. There more bike coalitions (Why that term? Biker gang has more panache.) demanding this and that than any other urban group, Demands such as new bike lanes, bike storage, parking, etc. all at the expense of other transit needs. I call for a license fee for ALL bikes in the state of California. Say $20 to start. This would be used for trails, bike lanes, and storage. It would also create a state database that would help track down your $4,000 Schwinn when it’s stolen. We license dogs, hairdressers, and landscape architects why not a fee for bikes, and that includes that cute pink one in the garage for your daughter. I had to buy a license for my bike back in the fifties in Illinois - this ain't a new concept. There will be no escape from this odious fee (I’ll be the first to call it that). Then maybe they’ll start to act more civilized as they scare the hell out of car drivers on popular bike circuits as they course through town in those hideous outfits – again the term Biker Gangs comes to mind.

Before

After? Brown and Olive my two favorite colors!

Urban Art: Why is it that most urban art is as interesting as mud on a fence? My little town (Walnut Creek, Ca.) went through a long process of trying to find an artist or artists to redo some fountains on our Main Street. These were built years ago and did need a face lift. The results are without a doubt just lame. To me urban art is about raising ideas, honoring an ideal, or just plain fun. It should stir the soul or cause you to pause, maybe to laugh, or even think. I suggest it’s not there to make you wonder WHY? For the Main Street of a town I go for fun and interesting. The before was old and tired, the new is just, well, just lame. And it certainly, unlike the old, doesn’t welcome you to sit. Another missed opportunity, and what were they thinking?

Omaha Beach, Normandy, France

 And lastly, Wednesday this week was the 6^th of June, the 70th anniversary of D-Day. Day’s like December 7^th and September 9^th will remain in our history as long as there are memories. This invasion of France on the beaches of Normandy changed the war and changed the course of history. To stand in the cemetery at Omaha Beach is transformative, to look over that huge width of beach from the bluffs, you wonder how anyone survived. Take a moment and thank those who gave up everything for us. For them failure was not an option.

Stay Tuned . . . .

Re-Urban Balance – The Quest for the Future Downtown

I live in a delightful small town twenty-six miles east of San Francisco. The village was once a Spanish ranchero, that beget cattle ranches, that beget walnut and fruit orchards– hence the name Walnut Creek – that beget housing, that beget freeways, that beget BART (regional transit), that beget a regional crossroads, that now has beget one of California’s most successful urban retail and commercial developments. Sounds almost biblical.

I remember during an Urban Land Institute presentation a number of years ago, a past mayor of our village remarking, as a part of a panel I was moderating, about a regional mayor’s conference she attended. “Well, the mayor of Alameda walked up to me all puffed up and said they had just acquired a Trader Joe’s, well I said congratulations, we haven’t achieved anything so large in our down town, we just got Tiffany’s.” Yes, size sometimes does make a difference. Trader Joe’s is a go to and leave store, Tiffany’s is contagious like a plague (the good kind), it will infect every store and building owner. It will bring more buyers to the downtown, all profit.

The difficulty with much new urban (faux-retail) development is its lack of history, variety, and texture. I am always looking for friction in my designs, things rubbing against each other, close by shops, near and available parking – (but not too much - it can push apart uses and lose friction), a broad mix of retailers and restaurants. It’s extremely difficult to achieve this in a new retail center, and almost impossible in the old enclosed mall. We are lucky here in Walnut Creek.

While this is, and all downtowns are, in a constant state of renewal through creative destruction (stores fail, owners lower and raise rents, cities try to nudge land uses around such as restaurants and retail, and developers try to find the best mix for their centers), Walnut Creek is lucky to have a broader rental base and a diverse number of building owners. Ain’t completion great!

The old part of town was a classic California “valley” town. Main Street flanked by mostly one story buildings (most insubstantial), somewhat narrow sidewalks, adequate parking (for 1930), and a low surrounding population. But now the town sits at the intersection of two major freeways and a regional transit center with BART. The streets have trees that stand fifty to sixty feet high and as each old building is renovated, new walks and street improvements are made. The city has built discrete parking garages with retail and restaurants on the street, and, most importantly, supported the expansions of the Macerich urban mall on the south side of the downtown core. There is a symbiotic relationship between the north and south sides of the downtown core, the old and the new, the large floor plates to the south and the privately owned shops and stores to the north. Restaurants are tucked between things, there is the beginning of a good sidewalk restaurant trade, and there is enough of a downtown to make a day of it – not just drive to, shop and leave.

New retail centers try to build in history and texture, it’s almost impossible to achieve. A new car takes fifty years to be a classic, and not all classics are high-end, the ’57 Chevy Belair was the vanilla of its time, it now turns heads. It’s tough to achieve maturity and success. But with an older and very competitive area of the downtown mixed with the draw and high end values of the Macerich portion, the downtown is richer and more exciting. There is now a night life (go find that in your downtown), there is Nordstrom, a new Forever 21, a Neiman Marcus will open soon, an Apple store with its usual customer line outside each morning, and some really, really great food.

I’m reminded of the old Yogi Berra comment, “Nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded!” That can be said for our downtown, everyone complains about the traffic and lack of parking, as if that’s a bad thing. Would you want to own a business with no traffic problems and plenty of available parking right outside your front door? I was discussing downtowns with a city planning director of a community near San Jose, he was charged with creating a downtown out a disparate jumble of strip malls, regional centers, and six and eight lane main streets. He had no traffic or parking problems anywhere. “I would kill for a traffic level of F,” he said. “But if I said it, I’d be fired.”

There’s the rub, or lack of it.

Stay tuned . . .