A Change is in the Works

To my loyal readers, thanks.  This is the 143rd  post for Cogito Urbanus, and for the most part I have enjoyed the writing and the research, they go hand in hand (and I never missed a Friday). And it’s actually quite fun. But, as any blogger will tell you, it’s always there, day to day, annoying and demanding. And the simple fact is this: writing two blogs a week (the other is on writing GO HERE), trying to get a 1,000 words a day down in my novels, and still run a design and urban planning shop is, well, a bit much ( ask my CFO).

So something has to change. It’s very obvious that the development world will go on doing its “thing” with or without me, so I’m cutting back. This blog will now be written when I have something brilliant to say, or not say, as the case may be. I am concentrating my efforts on two new books that are due out this spring and summer. One, a historical novel called Wars Amongst Lovers, and two, a new Sharon O’Mara thriller called Diamonds For Death. My goals are simple: sell, sell, and sell; write, write, and write. By the way, if you go to my writing blog, you will notice that all my books are free until Saturday night for your ereader/Nook/Kobo etc. Jump on board. Let’s build momentum together.

Keep in mind these Cogito Urbanus  prophecies:

• New home demand will outstrip supply very quickly and, due to the severe lack of forward planning and entitlements, will skyrocket in price. (huge demand + cheap money = higher prices).
•  The lack/reduction of federal spending will free up capital for private sector development - a very good thing.
• The greatest market for development (as a sector) will be senior housing. This will be an across the board menu of active adult urban, active adult resort, housing with medical support, short and long term care, and memory. Many will be infill projects.
• Interest rates must rise back to their norm and this will be sooner than you think.
•  And inflation (due to cheap money) will have dramatic impacts on supplies, land, housing and rents, be careful what you ask for.

 So Long Farewell - for now!

So my friends, it has been enjoyable and fun. Occasionally drop by, check out my latest postings, how often, remains to be seen. And I would love to hear from you.

So Stay Tuned . . . . . . . .

I Wonder As I Wander

I have been wondering (a lot) about where growth and development will happen as we move from this cycle of collapse and retreat. I won't be pointing fingers or shaking my fist at the stars - too easy and accomplishes absolutely nothing. For this session let's just lay back on the couch and think a little about the future.

Obvious Trends:
Currently there are strong regional growth areas, such as Silicon Valley and other high tech areas that will continue to add jobs and more importantly entrepreneurial growth - from little acorns come huge oaks. While sadly I think that most tech manufacturing will still be outsourced overseas, the intellectual capital side will significantly support residential growth and the expansion of nearby existing research facilities. But housing will not be cheap, if anything, too expensive. I am also seeing sales of once high-tech land rezoned into residential use in these same markets - this is market driven as home prices continue to rise. The first builders in are the big regional players followed quickly by the national public companies.

Retail is in turmoil. After almost twenty years of building too much square footage there is a strong sense that this retrenchment (i.e. selling off malls for other uses, converting urban retail to multi-story residential) will have ongoing and serious effects on existing retail centers. The two major players, Simons and GGP are fighting it out in the marketplace with rumors of acquisitions and privatizations. There are too many big box retailers cannibalizing their own markets. Regardless of the "green mindset" people will drive to buy. Look for a return to and growth of well supported and "improved" older downtowns. Retail will continue to be more than loading up the SUV at Costco (but don't short their stock either).

The Boomer market is a head-scratcher. While there is a strong, albeit small, retirement community market - many of these are too remote to be effective. The days of the huge Del Webb communities are probably gone, they will be more modest and actually focused on one particular regional submarket such as south and west side of Chicago, affordable areas of New Jersey, the nearer suburbs of the San Francisco Bay Area. Most Boomers still want to be near their children and grandchildren but an international airport as well. The "urban" life is not for most of them, but think urbane. I also think there is a huge opportunity to develop dense and well amenitized senior neighborhoods with attention to great security and medical support. The things that scare most older people are being alone, ill, and forgotten. Senior and assisted living communities (at all economic levels) can provide these comforts. A good model is Sunrise - but costs are very expensive. This will be a big, big, political issue. Far more then even today's medicare debate, just wait and see.

Look for more and more assisted living communities - this doesn't take a genius to figure out. But they are still more often than not mom and pop operations. I see trends to larger and more resort oriented assisted living facilities. Not everyone is senile and bed ridden - at some time we will all need just a little more help.

What I also hope to see is more regional and sub-regional support for transit systems. This mania for high speed rail will pass as urban areas suddenly realize that the funds they desperately need are going to remote and underutilized areas. Look for expansions of systems such as BART and other Metro lines. One impact is the blowback form neighborhoods faced with freeway widening - they will not except it. The days of stacked freeways are a long time, if ever, away.

And lastly (as noted in last week's blog) look for renewed pushes into the regional edges. Land is cheaper (and way cheaper today than five years ago). This helps to support the primary reason for this edge growth - better and less expensive housing. It drives the enviros and pols crazy - but as always the marketplace will win out in the end. 

Stay Tuned . . . .

We Are All Getting Old

Is this our Future?

I have been personally involved in the senior housing industry since my days in the Urban Land Institute (ULI). I was there to help set up the Senior Housing Council and, for almost five years, was able to tour senior housing projects across the United States. I have designed and developed site plans for active adult communities (like the Del Webb Sun Cities), assisted living facilities, and even more complex CCRCs (Continuing Care Retirement Communities), memory care, and other attendant facilities.

But until you are faced with the real issue of a loved one who must be placed in one of these facilities I had no idea about how difficult and complex this process is. It usually begins with a traumatic event (stroke, heart issues, hip/leg breaks, etc.) and time in a hospital emergency room. Then you and your loved one go through a complex process of vetting the type of care they need, then where best to get that care, and then where will they live. Insurance issues, Medicare, medical needs, therapy, and on and on and on. These are steps none of us know or understand. Each step is one of trust. And through this ordeal I have met some truly dedicated people who testify to this trust and take us step by step through the process.

The Baby Boomer generation is over seventy million strong and bracket’s ages currently from about 45 to 65 (we can quibble but this is where the demographic is thickest). Every one of us will, at some time, require access to and need for these facilities. There is as much to learn as when you buy your first house, or get married, or have those kids (who you hope will be there to wipe your chin, if not, it’s $30 an hour). The learning is best done prior to having to wait in an emergency room at 2:00 in the morning on a Friday night.

And the cost for all this is incredible. I joked with someone about three days into this event, I’m turning into a socialist! It seems that Medicare (thanks G. Bush) will cover a substantial amount of this because of the age of the patient – but somebody still has to pay. And that somebody is us. I can sternly wave my libertarian three-cornered hat about, but when you might have to face a bill of over $40,000, even Dr. Ron Paul has to understand this can destroy families.

This blog is about urban issues, Cogito Urbanus – Think Urban. And these facilities are integral to our urban future. There is no greater concern by every citizen approaching retirement age than: “How the hell can I afford this? Where will I spend my days when a wheelchair is my only way around? Where will I lay my head and how much help will I need to take a pee? Will I end up in a warehouse full of old people, like me?”

And most start at about $3,000 per month plus special needs, and if you are fortunate to live twenty or thirty years in one of these facilities that is a lot on money. The best way to keep costs under control is build more facilities, competition is paramount (aAnd they employ a lot of people).

These facilities come in all sizes from group/guest homes to multimillion dollar Palm Springs communities. They are wanted by communities and cities as an important part of their urban fabric and social support.

For our part, we were lucky and with excellent guidance we have successfully moved through each stage of care. But a permanent home is still ahead of us; therapy will determine many of the patient final needs. As much as she would love to dance on a table again those days are past, but we all deserve a comfortable place to grow old.

Stay Tuned . . . .

PS. We will Noodle next week.