When I Get Older, Losing My Hair . . . .

When I'm Sixty-four!

Baby boomers are facing a big, and I mean very big, problem during the next thirty years: a serious lack of housing. When we reach a certain age we tend to have difficulties with the usual issues of home maintenance and care. We all have to face the fact that we just can’t do a lot of the things we liked to do once upon a time. And now we're looking at the clock a lot more and the bucket list and the whole issue of stairs and darker rooms, and seeing the buttons of the remote, and your kids saying things like, "Why do you have the TV so loud?"

To most of us the biggest issues are health, mobility, safety, and money. The usual course for most of us is to age in place, assuming that stairs are not a problem, you can afford trustworthy in-house health professionals, maybe a maid or a cook, and once in a while a chauffeur. Most of us aren't blessed this way and the kids have their own families to deal with. And besides, your preference isn’t to have them take care of you anyway.

More than fifty years ago Del Web built the first of the Sun City retirement communities, they became the model on which hundreds of other like communities and senior/active adult villages were built. Due to changes in the federal laws which allowed legalized discrimination based on age, these communities have continued to age, like boomers, in place. Many of these communities are now old and dated, the houses show the wear and tear of time and the facilities are too costly to maintain. And the new recruits – the Boomers - are now looking for something different.

By 2050 the number of Americans over the age of 65 will double from 40 million to more than 80 million. This age group is now about one in eight; in 35 years it will be one in five. Every year more people live to past 85 and there are more over the age of one hundred than anytime in our history. Other countries, such as Japan, are even worse.

Where will you live when you "retire?" In your current home? In a high-end retirement community? In a subsidized senior housing project? With you kids? There will be serious consequences to your family, your finances, your health, if you make the wrong choice. The biggest problems, right now, are the lack of choices with respect to housing – the retiree's biggest cost. It will soon become a buyers market, those with money will determine the market.

Believe it or not, one positive out of all this is that if significant numbers of homes and apartments can be built for this Boomer market, large numbers of existing homes become available to the marketplace. This is definitely a trickle-up scenario. Each year millions of Boomer residents will sell and move – freeing up housing. The problem right now is where can they buy/rent/co-own and move?

The over 65 market is growing and their need for housing is growing. The opportunities are huge but the development community is slow to the table. This housing model is different; the Boomer customer is more demanding, is better educated, more experienced, and is wealthier. It's a market not understood to many in publicly traded development companies. We all need a place to be happy and grow old and our expectations are not currently being met by the marketplace. And besides not everyone wants to move to Florida or Arizona.

This niche of housing requires land near population centers, high quality construction, facilities, recreation, and above all experienced management. It also requires new financing/cost models that allow this market to protect their equity and preserve their dignity. This cadre's biggest fear is that they will have more years left than money. Development companies that can create quality projects with long term guaranteed benefits and security will be the winners. City and towns will have to find ways of adjusting their fee structures, zoning and approval procedures to help move the project forward. We will need millions of these units over the next ten years and they need to be started now.

Stay Tuned . . . . . . .

We Are All Getting Old

Is this our Future?

I have been personally involved in the senior housing industry since my days in the Urban Land Institute (ULI). I was there to help set up the Senior Housing Council and, for almost five years, was able to tour senior housing projects across the United States. I have designed and developed site plans for active adult communities (like the Del Webb Sun Cities), assisted living facilities, and even more complex CCRCs (Continuing Care Retirement Communities), memory care, and other attendant facilities.

But until you are faced with the real issue of a loved one who must be placed in one of these facilities I had no idea about how difficult and complex this process is. It usually begins with a traumatic event (stroke, heart issues, hip/leg breaks, etc.) and time in a hospital emergency room. Then you and your loved one go through a complex process of vetting the type of care they need, then where best to get that care, and then where will they live. Insurance issues, Medicare, medical needs, therapy, and on and on and on. These are steps none of us know or understand. Each step is one of trust. And through this ordeal I have met some truly dedicated people who testify to this trust and take us step by step through the process.

The Baby Boomer generation is over seventy million strong and bracket’s ages currently from about 45 to 65 (we can quibble but this is where the demographic is thickest). Every one of us will, at some time, require access to and need for these facilities. There is as much to learn as when you buy your first house, or get married, or have those kids (who you hope will be there to wipe your chin, if not, it’s $30 an hour). The learning is best done prior to having to wait in an emergency room at 2:00 in the morning on a Friday night.

And the cost for all this is incredible. I joked with someone about three days into this event, I’m turning into a socialist! It seems that Medicare (thanks G. Bush) will cover a substantial amount of this because of the age of the patient – but somebody still has to pay. And that somebody is us. I can sternly wave my libertarian three-cornered hat about, but when you might have to face a bill of over $40,000, even Dr. Ron Paul has to understand this can destroy families.

This blog is about urban issues, Cogito Urbanus – Think Urban. And these facilities are integral to our urban future. There is no greater concern by every citizen approaching retirement age than: “How the hell can I afford this? Where will I spend my days when a wheelchair is my only way around? Where will I lay my head and how much help will I need to take a pee? Will I end up in a warehouse full of old people, like me?”

And most start at about $3,000 per month plus special needs, and if you are fortunate to live twenty or thirty years in one of these facilities that is a lot on money. The best way to keep costs under control is build more facilities, competition is paramount (aAnd they employ a lot of people).

These facilities come in all sizes from group/guest homes to multimillion dollar Palm Springs communities. They are wanted by communities and cities as an important part of their urban fabric and social support.

For our part, we were lucky and with excellent guidance we have successfully moved through each stage of care. But a permanent home is still ahead of us; therapy will determine many of the patient final needs. As much as she would love to dance on a table again those days are past, but we all deserve a comfortable place to grow old.

Stay Tuned . . . .

PS. We will Noodle next week.