A Toy Train for Christmas

Two years ago I posted this story about high-speed rail in California and had so many comments I thought I would repost for my new readers. But now, even after two years, nothing seems to have changed and, in fact, political positions have sadly become even more locked in place as the costs continue to sky-rocket.

A Toy Train for Christmas

The Parts and Players:

Santa Claus (The Big Guy) – Washington D.C.

Santa’s Helpers (Men and Women in Elf Costumes) – State Governments

Billy (Good Little Boy) and Tiffany (Good Little Girl) – California, Florida, Washington State, Illinois, New York, et all

Sally (Not so Good Little Girl) –Ohio and Wisconsin

Toy Train – High Speed Rail

Our Scene:

Santa’s huge toy shop in one of the big department stores; a long line of children wait to tell Santa what they want for Christmas.

The first child climbs up on Santa’s knee with the help of one of the elves.

      “And what’s your name little boy?”

      “Billy, Santa Claus, Billy.”

      “Have you been good?”

      “Oh yes Santa, I have been very, very good.”

      “Excellent Billy, excellent, and what do you want for Christmas?

      “Oh Santa I want an erector set to build bridges for my brother, a whole village of dollhouses for my little sister, and a turkey with all the stuff and stuffing for my dad, see he’s lost his job.”

      “I’m sorry to hear about that, I’ll see what I can do. Billy, you want so much for your family and that’s good, very good, but Billy, what do you want for being so good?”

      Billy thought for a moment then turned his head to Santa with a huge smile. “Santa I want a toy train. It would be the most wonderfulous thing in the whole world, a toy train that I can play with, run the track all through my room and maybe even in the hallway. It just has to be the most special and wonderous train, all shiny and sparkly and new. And, oh, oh, Santa that would be so great and it would be real cool ‘cause none of friends would have a train like it and they all would wan’na come over and see it and play with me in my room. Please Santa, please.”

      “But Billy I gave you a set of Hot Wheels and racetrack a few years ago and a really cool airplane and terminal set last year. Aren’t they fun to play with anymore?”

      “Nah, Santa. I broke the racetrack and the planes just aren’t any fun anymore, but a toy train would be real cool, did I say the other kids would wan’na come over and see it.”

      “Yes you did, but Billy, that is a very big toy for someone your size.”

      “No. I’m a big boy, see!” Billy puffed himself up real big.

      “Yes, I guess you are, now that you are all puffed up. Yes, Billy, Santa has to agree that you are a big boy now and can take care of such a wonderfulous toy. Santa will see what he can do. Just watch for a big ‘green’ box under your Christmas tree.”

      “Oh thank you Santa, thank you.”

      Billy, with the help of the elves (who were all smiling and singing, I've Been Working on the Railroad), climbed off Santa’s knee and slid down the slide into a huge pile of ‘green’ cotton candy. Billy was in heaven.

      The next child in line wasn’t sure about Santa, he was so big and his suit was all red and furry. The bells on all the elves (who were scurrying about still talking about the good little boy, Billy), jingled and jangled creating such a wonderous din. This all scared the little girl. When the elves helped her onto Santa’s knee, Santa wasn’t sure what was going to happen. He was afraid for his suit.

      “And what’s your name little girl?”

      “Sally,” she said quietly, still shaking.

      “That’s a pretty name, have you been a good little girl?”

      Sally thought for a moment. She looked at the Big Guy and all the elves dressed in 'green' elf costumes, 'green' cotton candy billowed all around them, it was a wonderous sight.

      “Santa, I have not been a good little girl. I have saved my lunch money and not given it to my friends at school like my teacher says I should. I used it to help my dad and I bought him a new tie, he was trying to get a job, and he did Santa, he was so happy. And I yelled at my brother when he bought some ice cream just after he had a whole mouthful of candy. So you see, I have not been a good girl.”

      “I see, yes Sally, those aren’t good things to do, you should always mind your teacher.”

      “Yes Santa.”

      “But Sally, the elves and I know you can improve and be a better human being. I just know you want something for Christmas. Billy, that fine young man, who sat on this very knee just before you; see, he's playing in the 'green' cotton candy, said all he wanted was a toy train, all shiny and sparkly and new. Wouldn’t you want a toy train? Santa has a whole box full of them at the North Pole.”

      Sally thought for another moment then looked over at the next child standing in line, her name was Tiffany. She wore a bright dress and was all smiles.

      “Can you hurry Sally?” Tiffany demanded, stamping her shiny Mary-janes. “I just have to talk to Santa and, unlike you, I have been a very good little girl.” Even the elves could hear Tiffany’s strong Valley Girl accent.

      Sally looked back at Santa. “Santa, I really don’t want a toy train; I know that if I get it my parents will have to buy more track so that I can run it down the hallway and then I will have to get more cars and a new engine and then I will have to buy one of those fancy train stations and I will have to get a little bridge to run the train over the other tracks and then a crossing thing with arms that go up and down and then I will have to get a huge box to keep them it and besides, it will be fun for a little while, then I will get bored and want something new and then it will just sit around and be in the way and besides it will only go in a circle and not really go anywhere really fast.”

      Santa was shocked; not because she said it all in one sentence and one breath, it was because everyone wanted a toy train, that’s why he had a box full.

      “Sally, you just aren’t a very good girl; you only think of yourself and not others.”

      Sally was saddened to hear that from Santa who had always been a hero to her.

      “Santa,” Sally said, “why don’t you give the toy train to Tiffany, she is always a good little girl and wears really nice clothes, nice shoes, has a wonderful tan, and always has a smile. I think she gives her lunch money to the teacher who uses it for good things. Yes, Tiffany is a good little girl, give her the toy train. She deserves it and besides I have heard that her parents are real rich and can buy her all the tracks and stations she wants.”

      Santa was very pleased, he had so many trains to give away and the line of good little boys and girls disappeared around the ‘green’ cotton candy mountain.

      Santa, pulled from his reverie, felt a tug on his sleeve; Sally looked up at him with her sad eyes. “Santa I really don’t want anything for myself, but if you can, my little brother wants a Red Ryder BB Rifle.”

      Santa was stunned and outraged beyond belief what his ears had heard. He pushed Sally slid off his knee and past all the 'green' cotton candy and watched as she crawled to the slide and started down its slippery surface. But she stopped just for second and took one last look at the Big Guy and all the wonderous elves and the piles of 'green' cotton candy and heard them exclaim ere she slid out of sight, “Sally, you’ll shoot your eye out.”

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Stay Tuned . . . .

Housing is Boring – Trains are Not

Old Topic

I have a stack of reports on my desktop on the rosy outlook for housing. Even Las Vegas is showing signs of recovery. But please, stop already. I believe that every newspaper, trade magazine, and housing blogger (Et tu, Brute?) is looking for housing articles and lights at ends of tunnels. Sure housing will turn around, it HAS to. As I have written before it is just plain demographics and the current affordability of housing. Why wouldn’t housing sales go up with low prices and extremely low mortgage rates – some now as low as 3%.

So housing is boring. Is that shimmering glow on the horizon the nascent sun, giver of life? No, it’s the latest housing statistics from the feds. So please, just stop. It is worse than predicting the rise and fall of the stock market based on the fight plan of a flock of crows. So please just tell me once and while – like at the end of the quarter. I really don’t care what the affordability is in Kansas. Kansas of all places – home of rainbows, tornadoes, and munchkins. So please stop. I will try to follow my own ruminations and keep housing on the back burner for a while. No thanks needed.

Acela by Amtrak

New Topic

I have for the better part of two years beat the High-Speed Rail in California over the head with anything I could find: old railroad ties, lengths of steel rail, and stiff necked politicians all in an effort to find some reality in the notion of flying across California's Central Valley at 250 miles per hour. But your humble blogger here has had a small epiphany, but like a good politician I will not change my stance on the 100 billion dollar two-rail boondoggle underway in California.

We were traveling from New York to Boston just last week and took the Acela train. Now I know you Eastern-Seaboarders just role your eyes over us California provincials (with great justification), but I have to admit that the train is very cool and the most surprising thing is that it works. We left on time and arrived on time. It flew along the rails at what felt like speeds of almost a hundred miles an hour (it has gone to 150mph according to Wikipedia). It extends to Washington D.C. on the south and Boston on the north. It is one of the few Amtrak lines that make a profit. In fact (according to Wiki) the two lines (fast and local) through this corridor provides half of Amtrak’s total national revenue.

Trains are a heck of a lot more enjoyable than airplanes – especially today. United Airlines and other carrier’s economy seats were redesigned by a group sponsored by the Spanish Inquisition. After five hours in one of their seats you would confess to sleeping farm animals. Trains have wide aisles, you can actually watch your luggage from your seat, they serve free drinks (in First Class – which really isn’t worth it), and they actually deposit you in the heart of the city. Gee!

I know, I know, I have challenged the Cal HSR for years, and will continue to do so. We can’t afford it, period. No more than I can afford a Bentley GT Coupe (my favorite automobile), just because I want it doesn’t mean I will get one. Why doesn’t the governor try real hard to fix the current track alignment and equipment of the Coast Starlight that goes to LA along the coastal corridor. Make it work like the Acela (use the Four Season Hotel model of customer satisfaction) – everything is there – especially the most important element, people. It currently carries 1/10th the traffic of the Acela and makes less than 10% of the same revenue. Sadly the reviews tend to show the service and scheduling to be less than acceptable (actually awful) and this is biggest reason for its poor reception in California (GO HERE).

As any hotelier can tell you it is the service and the respect for your guests by the staff that is paramount and in the case of travel, adherence to schedules as well. But without competition or alternatives people will drive or fly. Governor don’t try and fix the problem with a new train – fix the old one.

I actually enjoyed the Acela experience (I’ll slap myself later).

Stay Tuned . . . .

High Speed Rail – Should It Be Profitable?

An all-out press has been made in Florida to rationalize the costs for the high-speed link between Tampa and Orlando. The cost of the study was $1.3 million in federal rail dollars (Is this a new form of American currency – federal rail dollars?). This is now the new version of state and federal investment (state’s plan-fed’s pay) and like most private development it’s always good to use OPM (Other People’s Money). But it’s someone’s and you only have to look out the window to see whose OPM it is.

Can high-speed rail be profitable? The greater question is should it be profitable? The interstate highway system, started in the mid to late 1950s and dramatically changed America. Without a doubt it’s the greatest transformer of economies and cities since the late 1800s and the growth of railroads throughout the country. Fortunes were made from both enterprises, one fundamentally private (with lots of federal bonds), the other almost exclusively public through the use of huge federal bonds paid for (70% +/-) by user fees that are primarily gasoline taxes.

The rational, and I do accept it, is that the highway system provided the base infrastructure that permitted the most significant growth and change to America, the suburbs. The cities could not accommodate or even contain the growth of the last fifty years. The interstate highway system facilitated and supported this expansion. We again became a country of small towns and villages. That growth is no longer a trend, it is woven into the fabric of America, as evidenced in the current census numbers being released. The cities are not growing; it’s in their surrounding communities and towns where land, homes, and business opportunities abound.

The ongoing justification for the high-speed rail system is to facilitate the growth of America into this next century. Jobs, as transitory as they are, seem to be the base rational to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to make it quicker to go from inner-city to inner-city. The other arguments are questionable: they will be profitable, they are an alternative to the car, they will spur growth in the cities, and they are “sustainable.”

We have a very good rail system throughout the United States; Warren Buffet thought so, and bought a railroad. I don’t hear the rail companies clamoring for a faster system of moving shipping containers filled with Chinese goods across the country (my guess is that they secretly hope for a separate rail system so the damn passenger trains will get off their rails). As an old Illinois Central executive said a half a century ago, “Freight makes money, people make trouble.”

High speed rail, a point-to-point system, will do little to serve the small towns and villages of America. The best they will do is annoy the residents as they whistle through at one hundred and fifty miles an hour. The interstate highway created jobs by being the great enabler in community planning. Every off-ramp became the local “train station” of the 19th century. Communities evolved and grew; the interstate system became the twentieth century’s version of civilization’s river landings and ocean ports.

If more jobs need to be created, build on and support the existing passenger rail system, freight not-withstanding. Push for electrification, revive the intercity trolleys of eighty years ago, expand and aid BART, MARTA, and other regional Metro systems, focus on regions not continental pipe-dreams.

And remember that there is not one high-speed rail car and train builder in the United States; they will come from France, Germany, South Korea, Japan and China. We have forgotten how to build bridges (the new SF Bay Bridge is from China), railroads, and even toys. And just because Europe and the world have high speed systems doesn’t mean we have to; they still have a few kings and political systems that are a lot different than ours, change anyone?

Stay tuned . . .

Do We Still Need Cities?

Believe it or not, there is a debate centered on whether the American future depends on the city. The two leading cultural and social debaters, Richard Florida and Joel Kotkin take very different views of where we are heading. Florida, in his recent book The Great Reset, believes in the dense megaregion to drive the development of new industries and technologies and the creation of a whole new way of life. Joel believes in demographics and that people still have a choice, and they currently are voting with their feet and walking away from the denser urban centers toward “opportunity” regions.

The politicians and bureaucrats have to believe that the future is in our dense urban regions, and are focused on the major cities (I would too if that’s where the most votes live). They believe in the return to the city and like Richard Florida, opine that this is where the future will evolve. Maybe, maybe not.

Unlike most other countries, Americans, Canadians, and some European countries do not have to rely on the core urban city to move forward. But in other regions, it is the city where the jobs, ports and commerce centers, and many of the universities are. What affects the poorer countrysides in India, China, Vietnam, and Brazil more than anything is that their cities are where jobs and modern infrastructures exist. Say what you will about the futures of these countries, but it's their severe lack of stable and supportive infrastructures (poor roads, unsafe water, intermittent electricity, along with subsistence living conditions), that will doom these countries for years and years. They must depend on the urban region to exist in the Twenty-first Century.

Do we have to depend on the city for the American future and growth? We are now seeing how incredibility complex these urban centers are; aged infrastructures, poor quality housing, excessive taxation, almost criminal school systems, and above all incredibly bad management, this does not portend a great future for the city. For these and many other reasons, people vote with their feet.

Cities, while amazing physical structures, are the most fragile social ecosystems humans have created. For almost 7,000 years people have used cities as centers of commerce. The oldest seem to have been founded in the Levant, the region around Lebanon, Syria, and Israel; a crossroads in the trade routes of north-south and east-west commerce. Our American city building efforts pale in comparison to other great cities that have grown to maturity, like Athens and Rome, only to fail, rebuild, fail, then rebuild again. Others cities have maintained an increasing world importance for two thousand years, like London. Others are being created out of nothing but desire and intense amounts of capital, like Dubai. To foolishly believe that a city is permanent, we only have to look at Berlin in 1946, or Lisbon in 1755 when it was essentially wiped off the map of world by an earthquake, is to see how easily they can be destroyed. Great plagues gutted Medieval European cities; these plagues were the neutron bombs of their time, a city without people is only architecture. One could even argue that the greater and more intense the population, the greater its risk to disease and infection.

My belief is that current Western culture allows for and in fact demands a more flexible human network. Cities will exist and will grow, but the citizen does not have to physically live in and participate in the city. Economic costs are too high for all but the wealthy to live well in the city; all other residents in the urban core require the support, through taxes and investment of this smaller but wealthier group. It is like Paris where the taxes of the rest of France support this incredibly costly city. If these fortunate and wealthier citizens aren’t supported and encouraged to participate, they will leave. The city will become poorer and more dangerous, both financially and culturally, look at Detroit.

Florida can believe in the future of the megaregions, the creative class, a less auto-centric culture, and high speed rail as the ultimate savior; but he will have to tax the suburbanite and the small town citizen to make them work. As we see now, they will rebel. All the research and “fact” collecting won’t divine the future of a wealthy society that has the ability to make cultural and economic choices outside of the demands of the “State.” People in a free society will make decisions in their own self-interest. If this changes, no matter what government carrots are hanging out there, we may be in trouble.

Stay Tuned . . . .