A Toy Train for Christmas

This blog was originally posted way back in 2010 (how times have not changed). This is a story about high-speed rail in California and it had so many comments (I've reposted almost every year) for my new readers. But now, even after seven years, nothing seems to have changed and, in fact, political positions have sadly become even more locked in place as the costs continue to sky-rocket. And technologies, such as the electric car and the autonomous auto, will probably kill the thing before it can reach its potential.

We've had Governor Brown now for seven years. It it weren't for the politics (one party rule) in Sacramento, this would have died years ago. When you complain about the current state of things in Washington, just look at what we have here.

It has been slightly updated . . .

A Toy Train for Christmas

The Parts and Players:

Santa Claus (The Big Guy) – Washington D.C.

Santa’s Helpers (Men and Women in Elf Costumes) – State Governments

Billy (Good Little Boy) and Tiffany (Good Little Girl) – California, Florida, Washington State, Illinois, New York, et all

Sally (Not so Good Little Girl) –Ohio and Wisconsin

Toy Train – High Speed Rail

Our Scene:

Santa’s huge toy shop in one of the big department stores; a long line of children wait to tell Santa what they want for Christmas.

The first child climbs up on Santa’s knee with the help of one of the elves. 

      “And what’s your name little boy?”

      “Billy, Santa Claus, Billy.”

      “Have you been good?”

      “Oh yes Santa, I have been very, very good.”

      “Excellent Billy, excellent, and what do you want for Christmas?

      “Oh Santa I want an erector set to build bridges for my brother, a whole village of affordable dollhouses for my little sister, and a turkey with all the stuff and stuffing for my dad, see he’s lost his job.”

      “I’m sorry to hear about that, I’ll see what I can do. Billy, you want so much for your family and that’s good, very good, but Billy, what do you want for being so good?”

      Billy thought for a moment then turned his head to Santa with a huge smile. “Santa I want a toy train. It would be the most wonderfulous thing in the whole world, a toy train that I can play with, run the track all through my room and maybe even in the hallway. It just has to be the most special and wonderous train, all shiny and sparkly and new. And, oh, oh, Santa that would be so great and it would be real cool ‘cause none of friends would have a train like it and they all would wan’na come over and see it and play with me in my room. Please Santa, please.”

      “But Billy I gave you a set of Hot Wheels and racetrack a few years ago and a really cool airplane and terminal set last year. Aren’t they fun to play with anymore? How about a nice electric car?”

      “Nah, Santa. I broke the racetrack and the planes just aren’t any fun anymore, but a toy train would be real cool, did I say the other kids would wan’na come over and see it.”

      “Yes you did, but Billy, that is a very big toy for someone your size.”

      “No. I’m a big boy, see!” Billy puffed himself up real big.

      “Yes, I guess you are, now that you are all puffed up. Yes, Billy, Santa has to agree that you are a big boy now and can take care of such a wonderfulous toy. Santa will see what he can do. Just watch for a big ‘green’ box under your Christmas tree.”

      “Oh thank you Santa, thank you.”

      Billy, with the help of the elves (who were all smiling and singing, I've Been Working on the Railroad), climbed off Santa’s knee and slid down the slide into a huge pile of ‘green’ cotton candy. Billy was in heaven.

      The next child in line wasn’t sure about Santa, he was so big and his suit was all red and furry. The bells on all the elves (who were scurrying about still talking about the good little boy, Billy), jingled and jangled creating such a wonderous din. This all scared the little girl. When the elves helped her onto Santa’s knee, Santa wasn’t sure what was going to happen. He was afraid for his suit.

      “And what’s your name little girl?”

      “Sally,” she said quietly, still shaking.

      “That’s a pretty name, have you been a good little girl?”

      Sally thought for a moment. She looked at the Big Guy and all the elves dressed in 'green' elf costumes, 'green' cotton candy billowed all around them, it was a wonderous sight.

      “Santa, I have not been a good little girl. I have saved my lunch money and not given it to my friends at school like my teacher says I should. I used it to help my dad and I bought him a new tie, he was trying to get a job, and he did Santa, he was so happy. And I yelled at my brother when he bought some ice cream just after he had a whole mouthful of candy. So you see, I have not been a good girl.”

      “I see, yes Sally, those aren’t good things to do, you should always mind your teacher.”

      “Yes Santa.”

      “But Sally, the elves and I know you can improve and be a better human being. I just know you want something for Christmas. Billy, that fine young man, who sat on this very knee just before you; see, he's playing in the 'green' cotton candy, said all he wanted was a toy train, all shiny and sparkly and new. Wouldn’t you want a toy train? Santa has a whole box full of them at the North Pole.”

      Sally thought for another moment then looked over at the next child standing in line, her name was Tiffany. She wore a bright dress and was all smiles. 

      “Can you hurry Sally?” Tiffany demanded, stamping her shiny Mary-janes. “I just have to talk to Santa and, unlike you, I have been a very good little girl.” Even the elves could hear Tiffany’s strong Valley Girl accent.

      Sally looked back at Santa. “Santa, I really don’t want a toy train; I know that if I get it my parents will have to buy more track so that I can run it down the hallway and then I will have to get more cars and a new engine and then I will have to buy one of those fancy train stations and I will have to get a little bridge to run the train over the other tracks and then a crossing thing with arms that go up and down and then I will have to get a huge box to keep them it and besides, it will be fun for a little while, then I will get bored and want something new and then it will just sit around and be in the way and besides it will only go in a circle and not really go anywhere really fast.”

      Santa was shocked; not because she said it all in one sentence and one breath, it was because everyone wanted a toy train, that’s why he had a box full.

      “Sally, you just aren’t a very good girl; you only think of yourself and not others.”

      Sally was saddened to hear that from Santa who had always been a hero to her. 

      “Santa,” Sally said, “why don’t you give the toy train to Tiffany, she is always a good little girl and wears really nice clothes, nice shoes, has a wonderful tan, and always has a smile. I think she gives her lunch money to the teacher who uses it for good things. Yes, Tiffany is a good little girl, give her the toy train. She deserves it and besides I have heard that her parents are real rich and can buy her all the tracks and stations she wants.”

      Santa was very pleased, he had so many trains to give away and the line of good little boys and girls disappeared around the ‘green’ cotton candy mountain.

      Santa, pulled from his reverie, felt a tug on his sleeve; Sally looked up at him with her sad eyes. “Santa I really don’t want anything for myself, but if you can, my little brother wants a Red Ryder BB Rifle.”

      Santa was stunned and outraged beyond belief as to what his ears had heard. He pushed Sally slid off his knee and past all the 'green' cotton candy and watched as she crawled to the slide and started down its slippery surface. But she stopped just for second and took one last look at the Big Guy and all the wonderous elves and the piles of 'green' cotton candy and heard them exclaim ere she slid out of sight, “Sally, you’ll shoot your eye out.”

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Stay Tuned . . . .

The Water Bond – But It’s Raining

More Than Half Empty

I have an issue with the California legislature, for almost five decades they have done little to move the number forward on water storage and supply. If anything, it has been the local water districts that have accomplished more with regards to reservoir construction and storage. After all these districts are selling a product and the demand is increasing. But water statewide it is a labyrinth of water districts, federal agencies, environmental concerns, and …. politics.

Here are a few facts:

• California will grow by more than 30% during the rest of this decade to 50 million citizens (current population 38.3 million)
• No significant statewide improvements to the distribution system have been built since the California Aqueduct in the late 1960s.
• At my house in northern California here are the past annual rainfall amounts:

2008-2009       18.0 inches

2009-2010       22.0 inches

2010-2011       28.0 inches

2011-2012       16.5 inches

2012-2013       15.5 inches

2013-2014       13.0 inches

Most non-Californians don’t know that we here in the Golden State only get rain from October to early April, six months. That’s it. It’s like working for six months and having to live off the income for a year. Tough, real tough. And what we have learned is that nothing gets done until there is a crisis – and this one is a dozy.

The water bond on the ballot this year is needed. Not everyone is on board. Farmers and manufacturers have serious concerns, but again they are users. This is about storage and distribution. There is bond money for distribution of recycled (treated effluent) water, this alone can help reduce the demand on potable water for residential irrigation and agriculture. There’s money for reservoirs, groundwater improvements, recreation use, and of course environmental improvements. As with any bond of this kind every palm needs to be greased. Cynicism aside, this is a needed step into the future of the state.

To be honest though, the total funding is pennies. Much more is needed. Massive projects, like the San Francisco Hetch Hetchy system, built more than a hundred years ago, need work. Distribution systems under older urban neighborhoods leak and lose significant amounts of water (not to mention burst and undermine streets). The bond is for $7.545 billion dollars, which comes to $196.80 per person – I think we can do better. And the governor wants to spend more than $70 billion on a high- speed train? More than ten times the water bond – please. Hopefully we can use the train to deliver water to southern California from northern California.

Stay Tuned . . . . . . . . . .

The Train To Nowhere

We were having dinner with close friends the other night. They are an extremely successful couple, now retired, and have seen more of the world than any other person I know. They like us, have jumped on and off trains, and boats, and trains all around this world (though they have gone a lot further and to places my wife says, “in your dreams.” The surprising thing was that we all came to the conclusion that Governor Brown’s high speed train is not just a joke but insanity.

“Put the money into the regional transits, like BART,” he said. “Put it where it would make the most sense. The freeways are becoming a joke around here – make these trains work, not make it easier for folks in LA to escape.” There’s some truth to that I think.

The infrastructure of the Bay Areas rapid transit is now more than forty year old. New rail cars are being added; it will finally reach San Jose in a few years; and may extend into the eastern outlying suburbs during my lifetime. But put fifteen or twenty billion into it and real money will grow from these roots extending out into the hinterlands—just like it did forty years ago.

High-speed rail is cool. I took it from London to Milan last year. It’s a wonder. And it’s also a wonder how those European economies paid for it. Probably sold the same bonds to the Chinese the Californians are getting ready to sell. It isn’t a question of spending billions of dollars, California will do that anyway; it’s where it’s spent.

People will live where they want, and it is usually driven by costs and value and fear and traditions. They may want to live in their old neighborhood but work forty miles away; all the urban planning and silly state laws won’t change that. The basic twenty-first urban planning is done in most American cities; we are now into the fifth and six rings of outward development surrounding cities. Serving and interconnecting these rings with each other and to the old urban core are what needs to be done. Not build tracks in the middle of nowhere hoping that money will be found to connect them eventually to where the people really are. Governor Brown can create one of his fantasies and in the end it will all turn out just right. Maybe we can use it to bring water from Canada—not that’s an idea.

Stay tuned. . . . . . . . . . .

Is That A Meteor Heading for California?

Is that a bird, or a plane, no it's High-Speed Rail

No, it’s High-Speed Rail (HSR). Yesterday, July 5th, 2012 the California Assembly passed by a partisan vote of 51-27, the authorization to sell $4.5 billion in state bonds to finally get the HSR going. This begins the state’s ability to sell the 2008 voter approved bonds and also allocates another $1.9 billion for regional rail improvements in Northern and Southern California (which were just unashamedly bribes to the various assembly and senate districts). It is a shell game where Jerry Brown is pointing to the local issues making sure you don’t see what his other hand is doing.

Readers of this missive know quite well my standing on this whole concept of adults finally getting the train set their parents never let them have. Someday when this whole venture comes crashing down due to lack of riders, the massive subsidies, the high cost of electricity and maintenance, all these fine ladies and gentlemen will be long gone. The people of California just stand in awe of their legislature’s disconnection from reality. It’s nineteenth century technology for Pete’s sake, can’t we do better?

If you want to or have to spend the money in California why not where it will do the most good structurally and economically, think locally not regionally.

How about these:

A mid San Francisco Bay bridge crossing from airport to airport that will eliminate substantial numbers of cars on the Bay Bridge and keep them out of the downtowns of Oakland and San Francisco. The Bay Area is shifting south and this would help traffic immensely as well as spur growth.

Build BART extensions to Tracy and Gilroy and add a new cross Bay connection on the bridge noted above.

Expand all major California airports with at least one new runway and multiple jet ports using the newest technologies for safety and air control. Expand urban rail connections to most of them. No matter how you dice it, air is faster than HSR.

Increase and support the advancement of high-speed automobile control systems that will utilize the existing freeway infrastructure. This is what Google is doing with its driverless car (GO HERE). I know it’s spooky but then again I still can’t believe that a 747 can get off the ground and end up in England 10 hours later, but I have faith every time I climb on board. Imagine low tech systems that use existing freeways where specific lanes are set to allow “rubber” tired low tech, natural gas powered buses and cars, to move around the state at higher speeds. Probably accomplished by a lot fewer dollars and paid for by the user through taxes on natural gas.

But then again a new train set is a lot more fun.

Stay Tuned . . . . .

Out Migration and California, The Naysayers May Bite Their Tongue

Due to a book event at the Oakland Convention Center today, where I will be shamelessly shilling my books at the Windsor Hill Publishing booth, I will defer the next Noodlings blog to next Friday. There is much to noodle.

So today a short post and a reprise of one of my past blogs.

California bashing is always in vogue and with the current high profile antics of the mayor of Oakland and her dithering with the Occupy crowd (my convention today is two blocks away), the silliness with the Dodgers and the ongoing divorce (from the fans as well), and Governor Browns attempts at changing the pension system for state employees – no wonder we Californians are scratching our collective heads this week.

But due to the economic realities of the day less California citizens are packing up and fleeing. Even the usual bash source, the New York Times, has to admit that out migration has slowed to a trickle (HERE). In the article California is shown to have reduced its outward migration 201,000 in 2005 to 71,000 in 2009. My guess it’s even lower today. But remember that the state has averaged a net growth per year since 2000 of 400,000 people, even with the outflow. We are not getting smaller.

My first blog this year posted a broader picture of the current state of the state. It’s reposted for your enjoyment, such as it is.

January 7, 2011

A Tale of Two States Separated at Birth

The population of California in 2010 reached 37,254,000 souls. This is a 10% increase over its population in 2000 or about 4 million people. We are ranked 13th in national density with 239 citizens per square mile (it’s a big state and there's lots space between us – except of course where you live). The state is projected to have 42.2 million people in 2020 and 46.4 million in 2030 (government projections - take them as you will). If these new 9 million people were to form their own state it would rank as the tenth most populous in the nation.

Today the majority of Californians, in fact the far majority, live within 50 miles of the Pacific Ocean and in fact, more like 30 miles. This coastal population is almost 25.7 million people with the split at 8.1 million north and 17.6 million south, a two to one split. The state has 163.7 thousand square miles. The 30 mile band of coastal paradise may not total 11,000 square miles, less than 2% of the state’s area. California will grow over the next twenty years by almost ten million people and is projected to grow to fifty million by 2050, this growth equals the current population of Los Angeles and Orange Counties combined.

This missive isn’t about the differences between the north and the south, culturally they are so similar (outside of some snooty northern Californian’s opinions about LA), that the discussions about their potential separation are moot and in fact, humorous. The real and most tragic difference is the cultural, economic, and educational extremes between the coast and the rest of the state. Sure there are pockets of charm and financial strength in the rest of the state, but these are extremely small and survive on the largess of the coast. It’s now a story of east and west, the haves and have-nots, the self-appointed elites and the desperate, the disconnected illegal and the prosperous patrician.

This coastal band of counties and cities have built bulwarks around their communities and pulled legal shrouds over their collective heads and, as a result, forced development needed to supply the basics for this incoming generation of residents into the rest of the state. This has been the natural course of American growth in the latter part of the twentieth century, like it or not. Remember cities, with few exceptions, only plan for the future, they do not build. Their exposure is to paper and maps, not to wood and steel and the marketplace.

As I have noted before in other blogs, the coastal communities must, in fact, welcome more people into their communities – period. This must be through changes in underlying zoning and density, increased height limits (the maximum four story structure must be put to rest), expansion of roads and infrastructure while at the same time increasing efficiency and standardization. The marketplace and the strength of the economy will determine whether residential development is rental or ownership, this buy/rent relationship will always be in a state of flux. The real issue is the unit itself and where it is built.

I came across Victor Davis Hanson’s blog called Two Californias the other day that brought this home in a new and frightening way. I have planned and designed communities throughout California for the last thirty years and Mr. Hanson’s observations about the Central Valley and the coast strike close to the heart. I have worked in these Central Valley communities, planned their neighborhoods, and listened to many city councils - all desperate to improve their small bit of California. But now within the state the strength in the soul seems to be slipping, an acquiescence to fate, a palpable bitchiness, and an almost tribal fear resulting in paralysis is growing. Gangs are now moving into suburban areas, meth labs are found throughout the countryside, and a real dumbing down of the population during a time of a manic need for education. There is a need to grab on and hold tight – the Golden State needs a new sunrise.